As expected, Barisan(Barisan Nasional) won(55 seats out of 71)the state election 2011 and formed the new state government. But the new state government is a crippled one, without the support and representative of Chinese community in the state. If we taking into the account of distribution of seats in the state, where the urban seats have the most number of the voters, and the rural seats have less number of the voters, actually more seats should be allotted for urban areas based on the population. The ruling party also did not get the support of urban voters. They are only a state government that formed due to marginal win, 41.2% of voters did not voted for them. If you consider the spoiled votes, and electorates who failed to votes, as people who do not support the ruling party, the state government is actually a minority government.
Just look at the votes obtained;
Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) obtained 192,785 votes, which was 28.66% of the votes; but it won 35 seats, which was 49.30% of seats. Nearly half of total seats in the state assembly. Looking at the large majority obtained by PBB in Melanau/Malay constituencies, revealed that the areas are the strong hold for the ruling party, especially Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB). PBB is ensured of victory even before the counting of the votes. No wonder it always remained the largest parry in the state. So 28.66% of the voters was able to form a state government, you just need extra one seat. What is the logic?, a laughing stock for democracy. Democratic Action Party (DAP)won 134,847 votes, which was 20.05% of the total votes, but only won 12 seats, which was 16.90% of total seats. Parti Keadilan Rakyat(PKR)won 117,100 votes which was 17.41% of the total votes, only get 3 seats, which was 4.23% of total seats. The combined votes of DAP and PKR was 251,947 votes(37.46%), larger than PBB's votes of 192,785 votes by 59,162 votes; but their total seats in the state assembly was only 15 seats(21.13%), compared to 35 seats(or 49.30%) given to PBB. PBB had 20 seats more despite having 59,162 votes less. The seats won did not directly represented the votes people voted, a primary school students will tell you what is wrong with the mathematics....what is the logic?(Note: We also need to change the allocation of seats which did not fairly represent the number of voters as required by a true democracy system.). This system has changed statistically the result of the election, and Sarawak will be ruled by ruling party comfortably even without a fight in election. An undemocratic election?....
A healthy state government should be the one that obtained the support of all races in the state, represented by majority of the people. Not only that, a democratic government should be formed by majority representative of its people in a fair democratic election. There is nothing to be proud for the ruling party on winning the state election, it was formed by marginal victory, using unfair election system. In fact with the long history of its ruling of the state, it is actually a failure for ruling party. It is a shame that the state government was formed in this way....
There were many critical issues for the state, at the end only DAP(Democratic Action Party)was able to deliver the message, but other parties from the opposition were failing in their effort. One of the reasons why DAP was able to attract the votes from Chinese dominated constituencies was there is no division of opposition votes there, practically it was one-to-one fight between the ruling and opposition. Even if there were more than two parties contesting, the other parties were not strong to be a threat.
Keadilan(Parti Keadilan Rakyat)and SNAP(Sarawak National Party) cannot come to agreement in other constituencies, this provide no alternative for the voters, as the ruling party is expected to win. This is the main factor for their failure. If Keadilan can win 3 seats, that means there was chances that they can win more. The rural constituencies are difficult to be visited by opposition campaign workers. Moreover the ruling party has strong base of government machinery and coupled with development fund allocation, which the ruling party can used for their advantage in the campaign. The message for change may not be delivered to the rural constituencies. Moreover, since the opposition votes will be split, the voters will think why should I vote for them? as there is no chance for the opposition to form an alternative government, I will voted for development fund for the constituency. Understand the different scenario in Sarawak politic, a new strategy need to be taken by opposition, local native grassroots leaders has to be train and developed in the long houses and villages. It require time and effort, and for a long term plan. Sarawak is not suitable for a short term political opportunists,it is for sincere politician. Without the votes of rural voters, it is difficult for the opposition to take over the state. Looking at the large majority obtained, Melanau/Malay constituencies are the strong hold for the ruling party, especially Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB), a solid 35 seats or 49.3% of the total seats in state assembly. Any failure to defeat PBB will mean no chance for ruling the state.
The West Malaysian issue will not help in state election for Sarawak; the opposition need to focus more on the local issues.
The opposition missed the chance during the 2011 election; the next election will be tougher without the issue of "White Hair"....
DAP was the big winner, with the repeat of the political tsunami like 308, the urban voters voiced their discontent, they want the change, not transformation, a change including the change of Chief Minister. The other component parties made some progress, except PAS. This revealed that the Sarawak voters can accept Keadilan but not PAS's politic. DAP have great political future for the next general election. More MPs are expected to be elected.
Looking at the background of the DAP candidates, many of them are young, well educated; yet good orators like their counterpart in the West Malaysia. DAP Sarawak must have prepared their strategy well to select and develop the new leaders. Despite of the victory, DAP is still a long way to go to achieve the dream of forming a state government. DAP need to solicit more support from Sarawak native community, a drive to attract Iban Bidayuh, Orang Ulu membership. Development of local leaders is the prime objective now for future political strategy. Otherwise DAP has no potential to form a state government, when other component parties of Pakatan Rakyat just cannot deliver. The rural communities still desire for development, and their hope is still on the ruling party to help them. It is the question of who have the money for development. The opposition will not have that advantage to allocate fund for development. DAP also cannot be happy too early, may be it was just the political tsunami phenomenon that voted them in, is the party strongly rooted in Sarawak politic?, and able to remain a force in Sarawak for a long time?.... the leaders need to ponder, and move away from being a Chinese dominated party, Sarawak(and Sabah) is the opportunity and the appropriate place for them to change their image.....
Keadilan is still weak in election campaign penetration, especially the inner part of Sarawak, mainly rural areas occupied by Sarawak natives, which included Iban, Bidayuh, Orang Ulu and others. The influence of Anwar is slowly fading, it may even be a negative factor if the party is over relied on his personality for their future strategy. It is high time for change, and move away from Anwar factor, otherwise it may be the party's future liability. To remain in Malaysian politic, the party need a long term agenda, moving away from Anwar factor. The two parties system has developed, Keadilan need to prepare as component party in an alternative to rule the country. This require new leadership development, who are faithful to the political aim of the party. Otherwise the party will only produce party hoppers, with consequence that voters will shy away for not having confidence to vote for them; for fear that their mandate will be spoiled by party hoppers. The position of SNAP in Sarawak should be a lesson for Keadilan, both have the same weakness and unable to compromise, otherwise the seats from non-Muslim bumiputra may be more for the opposition, and possibility of denying the ruling party a 2/3 majority.
PAS(Islamic Party of Malaysia)seems to be facing uphill task to find a landing ground in Sarawak in Melanau/ Malay areas or Muslim areas. It is better for the party to focus their resources on West Malaysia in the coming election.
The demise of SUPP and SNAP is unavoidable, if the parties did not change their political agenda and strategy. SUPP, their leader, George Chan Hong Nam even lost his seat.
SUPP(Sarawak United People's Party) will followed the same fate as other Chinese dominated parties, like Gerakan and MCA; slowly lost their baseline of support. Looking at their history, they are long established political party in Sarawak, initially they were opposition but joined Barisan National(a united front for ruling party), and become a component party in the coalition government after 1969. They only won 6 seats, the loses was hard to swallow.
For SNAP, the failure to come into agreement with Keadilan in this state election 2011, may be the last time the party will have an impact in Sarawak politic. It is no excuse for a local party with a long history, not to win any seat in the state election. They have lost totally, looking at the votes gained. It is anticipated that SNAP will disappeared in Sarawak politic as the two party system has developed.
Parti Cinta Malaysia is formed only recently; was too weak to create any impact.
The state politic scenario has changed; and there will be greater change in the coming federal election, the scenario will be different as the state development issue will be less prominent than national issues. Both ruling and opposition have failed in the Sarawak election 2011; a crippled state government was formed, and a dominant Chinese based opposition front developed. An unhealthy political situation for Sarawak.
Both ruling and opposition parties need more effort to overcome their shortcomings in the next election, so that a balanced scenario can be anticipated in future for a healthy two party system.
Congratulation to Sarawak people for a peaceful election....
What did the election result said for Penang?......